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Potros Uaem vs Loros Universidad — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Potros Uaem
Potros Uaem
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Loros Universidad
Loros Universidad
9/27/2019Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 8Estadio Universitario Alberto Chivo Córdoba (Toluca de Lerdo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Potros Uaem40%
×Draw24%
Loros Universidad36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Potros Uaem
1.58
Loros Universidad
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 7 away

creates per match

Potros Uaem
1.17
Loros Universidad
1.86

allows per match

Potros Uaem
1.09
Loros Universidad
2.00

finishing

Potros Uaem+0.00on par
Loros Universidad+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Potros Uaem ↓

Loros Universidad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Potros Uaem or draw
64%
Potros Uaem or Loros Universidad
76%
Draw or Loros Universidad
60%

Winning margin

Potros Uaem wins by 2+
20%
Loros Universidad wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Potros Uaem 1+ goals
79%
Potros Uaem 2+ goals
47%
Potros Uaem 3+ goals
21%
Loros Universidad 1+ goals
77%
Loros Universidad 2+ goals
43%
Loros Universidad 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Potros Uaem (draw refunded)
53%
Loros Universidad (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Potros Uaem at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

Loros Universidad away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Potros Uaem attack 1.17 + Loros Universidad defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Loros Universidad attack 1.86 + Potros Uaem defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Potros Uaem scores more
40%
level
24%
Loros Universidad scores more
36%

Potros Uaem at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Potros Uaem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Potros Uaem vs Loros Universidad

Loros Universidad beat Potros Uaem 2-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on September 27, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario Alberto Chivo Córdoba (Toluca de Lerdo).