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Potros Uaem vs Celaya — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Potros Uaem
Potros Uaem
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Celaya
Celaya
9/22/2018Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 9Estadio Universitario Alberto Chivo Córdoba (Toluca de Lerdo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Potros Uaem36%
×Draw29%
Celaya35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Potros Uaem
1.11
Celaya
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 119 away

creates per match

Potros Uaem
1.10
Celaya
1.15

allows per match

Potros Uaem
1.05
Celaya
1.13

finishing

Potros Uaem+0.00on par
Celaya+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Potros Uaem ↓

Celaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Potros Uaem or draw
65%
Potros Uaem or Celaya
71%
Draw or Celaya
64%

Winning margin

Potros Uaem wins by 2+
14%
Celaya wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Potros Uaem 1+ goals
67%
Potros Uaem 2+ goals
30%
Potros Uaem 3+ goals
10%
Celaya 1+ goals
67%
Celaya 2+ goals
30%
Celaya 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Potros Uaem (draw refunded)
50%
Celaya (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Potros Uaem at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

Celaya away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.13 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Potros Uaem attack 1.10 + Celaya defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.11

Celaya attack 1.15 + Potros Uaem defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Potros Uaem scores more
36%
level
29%
Celaya scores more
35%

Potros Uaem at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Potros Uaem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Potros Uaem 1–1 Celaya

Potros Uaem and Celaya drew 1-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on September 22, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario Alberto Chivo Córdoba (Toluca de Lerdo).