Potros Uaem 1–2 Atletico San Luis: Result & Stats

Potros Uaem

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Atletico San Luis

2/24/2019

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 8Estadio Universitario Alberto Chivo Córdoba (Toluca de Lerdo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Potros Uaem35%

×Draw29%

Atletico San Luis36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Potros UaemExpected goals in this matchAtletico San Luis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.14

Potros Uaem

1.13

Atletico San Luis

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 22 away

1.30

creates per match

1.27

1.00

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Potros Uaem

1.30

Atletico San Luis

1.27

allows per match

Potros Uaem

1.00

Atletico San Luis

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Potros Uaem+0.00on par

Atletico San Luis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Potros Uaem ↓

Atletico San Luis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Potros Uaem or draw

64%

Potros Uaem or Atletico San Luis

71%

Draw or Atletico San Luis

65%

Winning margin

Potros Uaem wins by 2+

14%

Atletico San Luis wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Potros Uaem 1+ goals

68%

Potros Uaem 2+ goals

31%

Potros Uaem 3+ goals

11%

Atletico San Luis 1+ goals

68%

Atletico San Luis 2+ goals

32%

Atletico San Luis 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Potros Uaem (draw refunded)

50%

Atletico San Luis (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Potros Uaem at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.00 · 30 matches

Atletico San Luis away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Potros Uaem attack 1.30 + Atletico San Luis defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.13

Atletico San Luis attack 1.27 + Potros Uaem defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Potros Uaem scores more

35%

level

29%

Atletico San Luis scores more

36%

Atletico San Luis at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Atletico San Luis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff