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Potenza vs Foggia — League #943 2026

Potenza
Potenza
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Foggia
Foggia
10/13/2024League #943League #943 · Girone C - 9Stadio Comunale Alfredo Viviani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Potenza47%
×Draw23%
Foggia30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Potenza
1.79
Foggia
1.38

Potenza creates 30% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 17 away

creates per match

Potenza
2.00
Foggia
0.76

allows per match

Potenza
2.00
Foggia
1.59

finishing

Potenza+0.00on par
Foggia+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Potenza ↓

Foggia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Potenza or draw
70%
Potenza or Foggia
77%
Draw or Foggia
53%

Winning margin

Potenza wins by 2+
26%
Foggia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Potenza 1+ goals
83%
Potenza 2+ goals
53%
Potenza 3+ goals
26%
Foggia 1+ goals
75%
Foggia 2+ goals
40%
Foggia 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Potenza (draw refunded)
61%
Foggia (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Potenza at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Foggia away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Potenza attack 2.00 + Foggia defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.79

Foggia attack 0.76 + Potenza defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Potenza scores more
47%
level
23%
Foggia scores more
30%

Potenza at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Potenza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Potenza vs Foggia

Potenza and Foggia drew 1-1 in League #943 on October 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Alfredo Viviani in Potenza.