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Potencia vs Tacuarembo — Segunda División 2026

Potencia
Potencia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tacuarembo
Tacuarembo
7/1/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 9Estadio Olímpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Potencia37%
×Draw27%
Tacuarembo37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Potencia
1.29
Tacuarembo
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 94 away

creates per match

Potencia
1.06
Tacuarembo
1.02

allows per match

Potencia
1.56
Tacuarembo
1.52

finishing

Potencia+0.00on par
Tacuarembo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Potencia ↓

Tacuarembo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Potencia or draw
63%
Potencia or Tacuarembo
73%
Draw or Tacuarembo
63%

Winning margin

Potencia wins by 2+
16%
Tacuarembo wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Potencia 1+ goals
72%
Potencia 2+ goals
37%
Potencia 3+ goals
14%
Tacuarembo 1+ goals
72%
Tacuarembo 2+ goals
37%
Tacuarembo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Potencia (draw refunded)
50%
Tacuarembo (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Potencia at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Tacuarembo away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.52 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Potencia attack 1.06 + Tacuarembo defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.29

Tacuarembo attack 1.02 + Potencia defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Potencia scores more
37%
level
27%
Tacuarembo scores more
37%

Potencia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Potencia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Potencia 1–1 Tacuarembo

Potencia and Tacuarembo drew 1-1 in Segunda División on July 1, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico in Montevideo.