Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Potencia vs SUD America — Segunda División 2026

Potencia
Potencia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
SUD America
SUD America
5/13/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 2Estadio Monumental Luis Tróccoli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Potencia34%
×Draw27%
SUD America38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Potencia
1.18
SUD America
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 70 away

creates per match

Potencia
1.06
SUD America
0.96

allows per match

Potencia
1.56
SUD America
1.29

finishing

Potencia+0.00on par
SUD America+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Potencia ↓

SUD America →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Potencia or draw
62%
Potencia or SUD America
73%
Draw or SUD America
66%

Winning margin

Potencia wins by 2+
14%
SUD America wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Potencia 1+ goals
69%
Potencia 2+ goals
33%
Potencia 3+ goals
12%
SUD America 1+ goals
72%
SUD America 2+ goals
36%
SUD America 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Potencia (draw refunded)
47%
SUD America (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Potencia at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

SUD America away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.29 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Potencia attack 1.06 + SUD America defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

SUD America attack 0.96 + Potencia defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Potencia scores more
34%
level
27%
SUD America scores more
38%

SUD America at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "SUD America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Potencia vs SUD America

SUD America beat Potencia 2-1 in Segunda División on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Luis Tróccoli in Montevideo.