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Potencia vs Progreso — Segunda División 2026

Potencia
Potencia
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Progreso
Progreso
10/22/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 18Estadio Contador José Pedro Damiani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Potencia24%
×Draw24%
Progreso52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Potencia
1.09
Progreso
1.72

Progreso creates 58% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 17 away

creates per match

Potencia
1.06
Progreso
1.88

allows per match

Potencia
1.56
Progreso
1.12

finishing

Potencia+0.00on par
Progreso+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Potencia ↓

Progreso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Potencia or draw
48%
Potencia or Progreso
76%
Draw or Progreso
76%

Winning margin

Potencia wins by 2+
9%
Progreso wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Potencia 1+ goals
66%
Potencia 2+ goals
30%
Potencia 3+ goals
10%
Progreso 1+ goals
82%
Progreso 2+ goals
51%
Progreso 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Potencia (draw refunded)
32%
Progreso (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Potencia at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Progreso away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Potencia attack 1.06 + Progreso defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.09

Progreso attack 1.88 + Potencia defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Potencia scores more
24%
level
24%
Progreso scores more
52%

Progreso at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Progreso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Potencia vs Progreso

Potencia and Progreso drew 2-2 in Segunda División on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Contador José Pedro Damiani in Montevideo.