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Potencia vs Oriental — Segunda División 2026

Potencia
Potencia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Oriental
Oriental
7/15/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 11Estadio Olímpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Potencia31%
×Draw26%
Oriental42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Potencia
1.16
Oriental
1.40

Oriental creates 21% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 69 away

creates per match

Potencia
1.06
Oriental
1.23

allows per match

Potencia
1.56
Oriental
1.25

finishing

Potencia+0.00on par
Oriental+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Potencia ↓

Oriental →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Potencia or draw
58%
Potencia or Oriental
74%
Draw or Oriental
69%

Winning margin

Potencia wins by 2+
13%
Oriental wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Potencia 1+ goals
69%
Potencia 2+ goals
32%
Potencia 3+ goals
11%
Oriental 1+ goals
75%
Oriental 2+ goals
41%
Oriental 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Potencia (draw refunded)
42%
Oriental (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Potencia at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Oriental away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.25 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Potencia attack 1.06 + Oriental defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

Oriental attack 1.23 + Potencia defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Potencia scores more
31%
level
26%
Oriental scores more
42%

Oriental at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Oriental will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Potencia vs Oriental

Potencia beat Oriental 2-1 in Segunda División on July 15, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico in Montevideo.