Potencia 1–3 Albion FC: Result & Stats

Potencia

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Albion FC

10/7/2023

Segunda División · 2nd Phase - 16Estadio Contador José Pedro Damiani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Potencia30%

×Draw27%

Albion FC43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PotenciaExpected goals in this matchAlbion FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.34

Potencia

1.08

Albion FC

1.34

Albion FC creates 24% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 95 away

1.06

creates per match

1.12

1.56

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Potencia

1.06

Albion FC

1.12

allows per match

Potencia

1.56

Albion FC

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Potencia+0.00on par

Albion FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Potencia ↓

Albion FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Potencia or draw

57%

Potencia or Albion FC

73%

Draw or Albion FC

70%

Winning margin

Potencia wins by 2+

12%

Albion FC wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Potencia 1+ goals

66%

Potencia 2+ goals

29%

Potencia 3+ goals

10%

Albion FC 1+ goals

74%

Albion FC 2+ goals

39%

Albion FC 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Potencia (draw refunded)

41%

Albion FC (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Potencia at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Albion FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.11 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Potencia attack 1.06 + Albion FC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Albion FC attack 1.12 + Potencia defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Potencia scores more

30%

level

27%

Albion FC scores more

43%

Albion FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Albion FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff