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Posušje vs Zvijezda Gradačac — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Posušje
Posušje
FT
1 – 0
Zvijezda Gradačac
Zvijezda Gradačac
10/31/20201st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 13Stadion Mokri Dolac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Posušje65%
×Draw21%
Zvijezda Gradačac14%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Posušje
1.96
Zvijezda Gradačac
0.78

Posušje creates 151% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 82 away

creates per match

Posušje
2.27
Zvijezda Gradačac
1.02

allows per match

Posušje
0.53
Zvijezda Gradačac
1.65

finishing

Posušje+0.00on par
Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Posušje ↓

Zvijezda Gradačac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Posušje or draw
86%
Posušje or Zvijezda Gradačac
79%
Draw or Zvijezda Gradačac
35%

Winning margin

Posušje wins by 2+
40%
Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Posušje 1+ goals
86%
Posušje 2+ goals
58%
Posušje 3+ goals
31%
Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals
54%
Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals
18%
Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Posušje (draw refunded)
82%
Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Posušje at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

Zvijezda Gradačac away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.65 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Posušje attack 2.27 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.96

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.02 + Posušje defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Posušje scores more
65%
level
21%
Zvijezda Gradačac scores more
14%

Posušje at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Posušje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Posušje 1–0 Zvijezda Gradačac

Posušje beat Zvijezda Gradačac 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on October 31, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Mokri Dolac in Posušje.