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Posušje vs Vis Kosova — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Posušje
Posušje
FT
0 – 0
Vis Kosova
Vis Kosova
10/4/20201st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 9Stadion Mokri Dolac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Posušje63%
×Draw21%
Vis Kosova16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Posušje
1.98
Vis Kosova
0.87

Posušje creates 128% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 61 away

creates per match

Posušje
2.27
Vis Kosova
1.21

allows per match

Posušje
0.53
Vis Kosova
1.70

finishing

Posušje+0.00on par
Vis Kosova+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Posušje ↓

Vis Kosova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Posušje or draw
84%
Posušje or Vis Kosova
79%
Draw or Vis Kosova
37%

Winning margin

Posušje wins by 2+
38%
Vis Kosova wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Posušje 1+ goals
86%
Posušje 2+ goals
59%
Posušje 3+ goals
31%
Vis Kosova 1+ goals
58%
Vis Kosova 2+ goals
22%
Vis Kosova 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Posušje (draw refunded)
80%
Vis Kosova (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Posušje at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

Vis Kosova away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.70 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Posušje attack 2.27 + Vis Kosova defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.98

Vis Kosova attack 1.21 + Posušje defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Posušje scores more
63%
level
21%
Vis Kosova scores more
16%

Posušje at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Posušje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Posušje 0–0 Vis Kosova

Posušje and Vis Kosova drew 0-0 in 1st League - FBiH on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Mokri Dolac in Posušje.