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Posušje vs FK Sarajevo — Premijer Liga 2019

Posušje
Posušje
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FK Sarajevo
FK Sarajevo
11/11/2023Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 14Stadion Mokri Dolac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Posušje37%
×Draw28%
FK Sarajevo35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Posušje
1.17
FK Sarajevo
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 108 away

creates per match

Posušje
1.14
FK Sarajevo
1.32

allows per match

Posušje
0.93
FK Sarajevo
1.19

finishing

Posušje+0.00on par
FK Sarajevo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Posušje ↓

FK Sarajevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Posušje or draw
65%
Posušje or FK Sarajevo
72%
Draw or FK Sarajevo
63%

Winning margin

Posušje wins by 2+
15%
FK Sarajevo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Posušje 1+ goals
69%
Posušje 2+ goals
33%
Posušje 3+ goals
11%
FK Sarajevo 1+ goals
68%
FK Sarajevo 2+ goals
31%
FK Sarajevo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Posušje (draw refunded)
51%
FK Sarajevo (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Posušje at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.93 · 83 matches

FK Sarajevo away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.19 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Posušje attack 1.14 + FK Sarajevo defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

FK Sarajevo attack 1.32 + Posušje defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Posušje scores more
37%
level
28%
FK Sarajevo scores more
35%

Posušje at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Posušje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Posušje vs FK Sarajevo

FK Sarajevo beat Posušje 1-0 in Premijer Liga on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Mokri Dolac in Posušje.