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FK Sarajevo vs Posušje — Premijer Liga 2019

FK Sarajevo
FK Sarajevo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Posušje
Posušje
8/16/2025Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 4Olimpijski Stadion Asim Ferhatović Hase

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

FK Sarajevo58%
×Draw24%
Posušje17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Sarajevo
1.65
Posušje
0.77

FK Sarajevo creates 114% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 85 away

creates per match

FK Sarajevo
1.77
Posušje
0.73

allows per match

FK Sarajevo
0.80
Posušje
1.52

finishing

FK Sarajevo+0.00on par
Posušje+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sarajevo ↓

Posušje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FK Sarajevo or draw
83%
FK Sarajevo or Posušje
76%
Draw or Posušje
42%

Winning margin

FK Sarajevo wins by 2+
32%
Posušje wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

FK Sarajevo 1+ goals
81%
FK Sarajevo 2+ goals
49%
FK Sarajevo 3+ goals
23%
Posušje 1+ goals
54%
Posušje 2+ goals
18%
Posušje 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FK Sarajevo (draw refunded)
77%
Posušje (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sarajevo at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.80 · 114 matches

Posušje away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.52 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sarajevo attack 1.77 + Posušje defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.65

Posušje attack 0.73 + FK Sarajevo defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FK Sarajevo scores more
58%
level
24%
Posušje scores more
17%

FK Sarajevo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FK Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Sarajevo vs Posušje

FK Sarajevo beat Posušje 2-1 in Premijer Liga on August 16, 2025.

The match was played at Olimpijski Stadion Asim Ferhatović Hase in Sarajevo.