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Posušje vs Borac Banja Luka — Premijer Liga 2019

Posušje
Posušje
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Borac Banja Luka
Borac Banja Luka
12/15/2023Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 18Stadion Mokri Dolac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Posušje34%
×Draw29%
Borac Banja Luka37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Posušje
1.06
Borac Banja Luka
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 109 away

creates per match

Posušje
1.14
Borac Banja Luka
1.30

allows per match

Posušje
0.93
Borac Banja Luka
0.98

finishing

Posušje+0.00on par
Borac Banja Luka+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Posušje ↓

Borac Banja Luka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Posušje or draw
63%
Posušje or Borac Banja Luka
71%
Draw or Borac Banja Luka
66%

Winning margin

Posušje wins by 2+
13%
Borac Banja Luka wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Posušje 1+ goals
65%
Posušje 2+ goals
29%
Posušje 3+ goals
9%
Borac Banja Luka 1+ goals
67%
Borac Banja Luka 2+ goals
30%
Borac Banja Luka 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Posušje (draw refunded)
48%
Borac Banja Luka (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Posušje at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.93 · 83 matches

Borac Banja Luka away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.98 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Posušje attack 1.14 + Borac Banja Luka defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.06

Borac Banja Luka attack 1.30 + Posušje defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Posušje scores more
34%
level
29%
Borac Banja Luka scores more
37%

Borac Banja Luka at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Borac Banja Luka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Posušje vs Borac Banja Luka

Borac Banja Luka beat Posušje 2-0 in Premijer Liga on December 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Mokri Dolac in Posušje.