Borac Banja Luka vs Posušje — Premijer Liga 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 85+ matches
Borac Banja Luka63%
Posušje14%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Borac Banja Luka creates 160% more chances
Season form · 114 home / 85 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No59
- Yes41
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Borac Banja Luka ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Borac Banja Luka at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.63 · 114 matches
Posušje away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.52 · 85 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Borac Banja Luka attack 2.02 + Posušje defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.77
Posušje attack 0.73 + Borac Banja Luka defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.68
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 63%?"
Borac Banja Luka at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 63% does not mean "Borac Banja Luka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Borac Banja Luka substitutes
FK Sarajevo
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
ZrinjskiBorac Banja Luka
Tuzla City
Radnik Bijeljina
Siroki Brijeg
Velež
Sloboda Tuzla
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
Čelik
Zvijezda 09If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Borac Banja Luka host Posušje on Sunday, 25 May 2025 at 13:00. The match is part of the Premijer Liga 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Borac Banja Luka vs Posušje
Borac Banja Luka beat Posušje 1-0 in Premijer Liga on May 25, 2025.
Goals: S. Savić (67').
The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Banja Luka.