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Postojna vs Tolmin — 3. SNL - West 2020

Postojna
Postojna
CANC
14:00
Tolmin
Tolmin
5/8/20213. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Postojna35%
×Draw22%
Tolmin43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Postojna
1.63
Tolmin
1.84

Tolmin creates 13% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 22 away

creates per match

Postojna
1.80
Tolmin
2.09

allows per match

Postojna
1.60
Tolmin
1.45

finishing

Postojna+0.00on par
Tolmin+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Postojna ↓

Tolmin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Postojna or draw
57%
Postojna or Tolmin
78%
Draw or Tolmin
65%

Winning margin

Postojna wins by 2+
17%
Tolmin wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Postojna 1+ goals
80%
Postojna 2+ goals
48%
Postojna 3+ goals
22%
Tolmin 1+ goals
84%
Tolmin 2+ goals
55%
Tolmin 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Postojna (draw refunded)
45%
Tolmin (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Postojna at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Tolmin away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Postojna attack 1.80 + Tolmin defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.63

Tolmin attack 2.09 + Postojna defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Postojna scores more
35%
level
22%
Tolmin scores more
43%

Tolmin at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tolmin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Postojna face Tolmin (3. SNL - West)

3. SNL - West returns with Postojna hosting Tolmin. Match starts May 8, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.