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Postojna vs Sava Kranj — 3. SNL - West 2020

Postojna
Postojna
CANC
14:00
Sava Kranj
Sava Kranj
3/13/20213. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Postojna32%
×Draw22%
Sava Kranj46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Postojna
1.65
Sava Kranj
2.00

Sava Kranj creates 21% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Postojna
1.80
Sava Kranj
2.40

allows per match

Postojna
1.60
Sava Kranj
1.50

finishing

Postojna+0.00on par
Sava Kranj+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Postojna ↓

Sava Kranj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Postojna or draw
54%
Postojna or Sava Kranj
78%
Draw or Sava Kranj
68%

Winning margin

Postojna wins by 2+
16%
Sava Kranj wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Postojna 1+ goals
81%
Postojna 2+ goals
49%
Postojna 3+ goals
23%
Sava Kranj 1+ goals
86%
Sava Kranj 2+ goals
59%
Sava Kranj 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Postojna (draw refunded)
41%
Sava Kranj (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Postojna at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Sava Kranj away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Postojna attack 1.80 + Sava Kranj defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.65

Sava Kranj attack 2.40 + Postojna defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Postojna scores more
32%
level
22%
Sava Kranj scores more
46%

Sava Kranj at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sava Kranj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Postojna face Sava Kranj (3. SNL - West)

3. SNL - West returns with Postojna hosting Sava Kranj. Match starts March 13, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.