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Posta Rangers FC vs Vihiga United FC — FKF Premier League 2018

Posta Rangers FC
Posta Rangers FC
FT
1 – 1
Vihiga United FC
Vihiga United FC
Unknown 7'
A. Imbusia 49'
5/12/2019FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 30Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Posta Rangers FC38%
×Draw31%
Vihiga United FC32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Posta Rangers FC
1.07
Vihiga United FC
0.96

Posta Rangers FC creates 11% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 51 away

creates per match

Posta Rangers FC
0.96
Vihiga United FC
0.78

allows per match

Posta Rangers FC
1.14
Vihiga United FC
1.18

finishing

Posta Rangers FC+0.00on par
Vihiga United FC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Posta Rangers FC ↓

Vihiga United FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Posta Rangers FC or draw
68%
Posta Rangers FC or Vihiga United FC
69%
Draw or Vihiga United FC
62%

Winning margin

Posta Rangers FC wins by 2+
15%
Vihiga United FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Posta Rangers FC 1+ goals
66%
Posta Rangers FC 2+ goals
29%
Posta Rangers FC 3+ goals
9%
Vihiga United FC 1+ goals
62%
Vihiga United FC 2+ goals
25%
Vihiga United FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Posta Rangers FC (draw refunded)
54%
Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Posta Rangers FC at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.14 · 145 matches

Vihiga United FC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Posta Rangers FC attack 0.96 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.07

Vihiga United FC attack 0.78 + Posta Rangers FC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Posta Rangers FC scores more
38%
level
31%
Vihiga United FC scores more
32%

Posta Rangers FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Posta Rangers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
49'
A. Imbusia

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Posta Rangers FC vs Vihiga United FC

Posta Rangers FC and Vihiga United FC drew 1-1 in FKF Premier League on May 12, 2019.

Goals: ? (7'), A. Imbusia (49').

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos).