Posta Rangers FC 1–2 Ulinzi Stars: Result & Stats

Posta Rangers FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Ulinzi Stars

10/27/2024

FKF Premier League · Round 7Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

Posta Rangers FC33%

×Draw31%

Ulinzi Stars36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Posta Rangers FCExpected goals in this matchUlinzi Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.00

Posta Rangers FC

0.95

Ulinzi Stars

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 147 home / 146 away

0.96

creates per match

0.86

1.14

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Posta Rangers FC

0.96

Ulinzi Stars

0.86

allows per match

Posta Rangers FC

1.14

Ulinzi Stars

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Posta Rangers FC+0.00on par

Ulinzi Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Posta Rangers FC ↓

Ulinzi Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Posta Rangers FC or draw

64%

Posta Rangers FC or Ulinzi Stars

69%

Draw or Ulinzi Stars

67%

Winning margin

Posta Rangers FC wins by 2+

12%

Ulinzi Stars wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Posta Rangers FC 1+ goals

61%

Posta Rangers FC 2+ goals

25%

Posta Rangers FC 3+ goals

7%

Ulinzi Stars 1+ goals

63%

Ulinzi Stars 2+ goals

26%

Ulinzi Stars 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Posta Rangers FC (draw refunded)

48%

Ulinzi Stars (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Posta Rangers FC at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.14 · 147 matches

Ulinzi Stars away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.95 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Posta Rangers FC attack 0.96 + Ulinzi Stars defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.95

Ulinzi Stars attack 0.86 + Posta Rangers FC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Posta Rangers FC scores more

33%

level

31%

Ulinzi Stars scores more

36%

Ulinzi Stars at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Ulinzi Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff