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Posta Rangers FC vs Sony Sugar — FKF Premier League 2018

Posta Rangers FC
Posta Rangers FC
FT
1 – 2
Sony Sugar
Sony Sugar
4/7/2019FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 21Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Posta Rangers FC31%
×Draw31%
Sony Sugar37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Posta Rangers FC
0.92
Sony Sugar
1.03

Sony Sugar creates 12% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 46 away

creates per match

Posta Rangers FC
0.95
Sony Sugar
0.93

allows per match

Posta Rangers FC
1.14
Sony Sugar
0.89

finishing

Posta Rangers FC+0.00on par
Sony Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Posta Rangers FC ↓

Sony Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Posta Rangers FC or draw
63%
Posta Rangers FC or Sony Sugar
69%
Draw or Sony Sugar
69%

Winning margin

Posta Rangers FC wins by 2+
11%
Sony Sugar wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Posta Rangers FC 1+ goals
60%
Posta Rangers FC 2+ goals
23%
Posta Rangers FC 3+ goals
7%
Sony Sugar 1+ goals
64%
Sony Sugar 2+ goals
28%
Sony Sugar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Posta Rangers FC (draw refunded)
46%
Sony Sugar (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Posta Rangers FC at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.14 · 146 matches

Sony Sugar away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.89 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Posta Rangers FC attack 0.95 + Sony Sugar defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.92

Sony Sugar attack 0.93 + Posta Rangers FC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Posta Rangers FC scores more
31%
level
31%
Sony Sugar scores more
37%

Sony Sugar at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sony Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Posta Rangers FC 1–2 Sony Sugar

Sony Sugar beat Posta Rangers FC 2-1 in FKF Premier League on April 7, 2019.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos).