Posta Rangers FC 0–1 Kariobangi Sharks

Posta Rangers FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kariobangi Sharks

12/8/2024

FKF Premier League · Round 12Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Posta Rangers FC32%

×Draw30%

Kariobangi Sharks38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Posta Rangers FCExpected goals in this matchKariobangi Sharks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.09

Posta Rangers FC

0.99

Kariobangi Sharks

1.09

Kariobangi Sharks creates 10% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 144 away

0.96

creates per match

1.04

1.14

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Posta Rangers FC

0.96

Kariobangi Sharks

1.04

allows per match

Posta Rangers FC

1.14

Kariobangi Sharks

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Posta Rangers FC+0.00on par

Kariobangi Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Posta Rangers FC ↓

Kariobangi Sharks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Posta Rangers FC or draw

62%

Posta Rangers FC or Kariobangi Sharks

70%

Draw or Kariobangi Sharks

68%

Winning margin

Posta Rangers FC wins by 2+

12%

Kariobangi Sharks wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Posta Rangers FC 1+ goals

63%

Posta Rangers FC 2+ goals

26%

Posta Rangers FC 3+ goals

8%

Kariobangi Sharks 1+ goals

66%

Kariobangi Sharks 2+ goals

30%

Kariobangi Sharks 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Posta Rangers FC (draw refunded)

46%

Kariobangi Sharks (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Posta Rangers FC at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.14 · 147 matches

Kariobangi Sharks away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.02 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Posta Rangers FC attack 0.96 + Kariobangi Sharks defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.99

Kariobangi Sharks attack 1.04 + Posta Rangers FC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Posta Rangers FC scores more

32%

level

30%

Kariobangi Sharks scores more

38%

Kariobangi Sharks at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kariobangi Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff