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Posta Rangers FC vs Homeboyz — FKF Premier League 2018

Posta Rangers FC
Posta Rangers FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Homeboyz
Homeboyz
12/11/2024FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 13SportPesa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

Posta Rangers FC33%
×Draw29%
Homeboyz39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Posta Rangers FC
1.05
Homeboyz
1.17

Homeboyz creates 11% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 146 away

creates per match

Posta Rangers FC
0.96
Homeboyz
1.19

allows per match

Posta Rangers FC
1.14
Homeboyz
1.15

finishing

Posta Rangers FC+0.00on par
Homeboyz+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Posta Rangers FC ↓

Homeboyz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Posta Rangers FC or draw
61%
Posta Rangers FC or Homeboyz
71%
Draw or Homeboyz
67%

Winning margin

Posta Rangers FC wins by 2+
13%
Homeboyz wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Posta Rangers FC 1+ goals
65%
Posta Rangers FC 2+ goals
28%
Posta Rangers FC 3+ goals
9%
Homeboyz 1+ goals
69%
Homeboyz 2+ goals
33%
Homeboyz 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Posta Rangers FC (draw refunded)
46%
Homeboyz (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Posta Rangers FC at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.14 · 147 matches

Homeboyz away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.15 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Posta Rangers FC attack 0.96 + Homeboyz defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.05

Homeboyz attack 1.19 + Posta Rangers FC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Posta Rangers FC scores more
33%
level
29%
Homeboyz scores more
39%

Homeboyz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Homeboyz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Posta Rangers FC vs Homeboyz

Posta Rangers FC and Homeboyz drew 1-1 in FKF Premier League on December 11, 2024.

The match was played at SportPesa Arena in Murang'a.