Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Posta Rangers FC vs GOR Mahia — FKF Premier League 2018

Posta Rangers FC
Posta Rangers FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
GOR Mahia
GOR Mahia
1/6/2024FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 16Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Posta Rangers FC25%
×Draw28%
GOR Mahia47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Posta Rangers FC
0.88
GOR Mahia
1.31

GOR Mahia creates 49% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 144 away

creates per match

Posta Rangers FC
0.96
GOR Mahia
1.49

allows per match

Posta Rangers FC
1.14
GOR Mahia
0.80

finishing

Posta Rangers FC+0.00on par
GOR Mahia+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Posta Rangers FC ↓

GOR Mahia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Posta Rangers FC or draw
53%
Posta Rangers FC or GOR Mahia
72%
Draw or GOR Mahia
75%

Winning margin

Posta Rangers FC wins by 2+
8%
GOR Mahia wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Posta Rangers FC 1+ goals
59%
Posta Rangers FC 2+ goals
22%
Posta Rangers FC 3+ goals
6%
GOR Mahia 1+ goals
73%
GOR Mahia 2+ goals
38%
GOR Mahia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Posta Rangers FC (draw refunded)
35%
GOR Mahia (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Posta Rangers FC at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.14 · 147 matches

GOR Mahia away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.80 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Posta Rangers FC attack 0.96 + GOR Mahia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.88

GOR Mahia attack 1.49 + Posta Rangers FC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Posta Rangers FC scores more
25%
level
28%
GOR Mahia scores more
47%

GOR Mahia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "GOR Mahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Posta Rangers FC 0–1 GOR Mahia

GOR Mahia beat Posta Rangers FC 1-0 in FKF Premier League on January 6, 2024.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium in Machakos.