GOR Mahia 4–0 Posta Rangers FC: Result & Stats

GOR Mahia

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Posta Rangers FC

3/2/2024

FKF Premier League · Round 21Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

GOR Mahia48%

×Draw28%

Posta Rangers FC24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GOR MahiaExpected goals in this matchPosta Rangers FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.86

GOR Mahia

1.36

Posta Rangers FC

0.86

GOR Mahia creates 58% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 149 away

1.58

creates per match

1.03

0.70

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

GOR Mahia

1.58

Posta Rangers FC

1.03

allows per match

GOR Mahia

0.70

Posta Rangers FC

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GOR Mahia+0.00on par

Posta Rangers FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOR Mahia ↓

Posta Rangers FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

GOR Mahia or draw

76%

GOR Mahia or Posta Rangers FC

72%

Draw or Posta Rangers FC

52%

Winning margin

GOR Mahia wins by 2+

23%

Posta Rangers FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

GOR Mahia 1+ goals

74%

GOR Mahia 2+ goals

39%

GOR Mahia 3+ goals

16%

Posta Rangers FC 1+ goals

58%

Posta Rangers FC 2+ goals

21%

Posta Rangers FC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

GOR Mahia (draw refunded)

67%

Posta Rangers FC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOR Mahia at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.70 · 147 matches

Posta Rangers FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.14 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOR Mahia attack 1.58 + Posta Rangers FC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.36

Posta Rangers FC attack 1.03 + GOR Mahia defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

GOR Mahia scores more

48%

level

28%

Posta Rangers FC scores more

24%

GOR Mahia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "GOR Mahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff