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Posta Rangers FC vs Chemelil Sugar — FKF Premier League 2018

Posta Rangers FC
Posta Rangers FC
FT
1 – 0
Chemelil Sugar
Chemelil Sugar
2/24/2018FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 4Camp Toyoyo (Nairobi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Posta Rangers FC44%
×Draw30%
Chemelil Sugar26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Posta Rangers FC
1.19
Chemelil Sugar
0.85

Posta Rangers FC creates 40% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 55 away

creates per match

Posta Rangers FC
0.96
Chemelil Sugar
0.56

allows per match

Posta Rangers FC
1.14
Chemelil Sugar
1.42

finishing

Posta Rangers FC+0.00on par
Chemelil Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Posta Rangers FC ↓

Chemelil Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Posta Rangers FC or draw
74%
Posta Rangers FC or Chemelil Sugar
70%
Draw or Chemelil Sugar
56%

Winning margin

Posta Rangers FC wins by 2+
19%
Chemelil Sugar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Posta Rangers FC 1+ goals
70%
Posta Rangers FC 2+ goals
33%
Posta Rangers FC 3+ goals
12%
Chemelil Sugar 1+ goals
57%
Chemelil Sugar 2+ goals
21%
Chemelil Sugar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Posta Rangers FC (draw refunded)
63%
Chemelil Sugar (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Posta Rangers FC at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.14 · 145 matches

Chemelil Sugar away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Posta Rangers FC attack 0.96 + Chemelil Sugar defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.19

Chemelil Sugar attack 0.56 + Posta Rangers FC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Posta Rangers FC scores more
44%
level
30%
Chemelil Sugar scores more
26%

Posta Rangers FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Posta Rangers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Posta Rangers FC 1–0 Chemelil Sugar

Posta Rangers FC beat Chemelil Sugar 1-0 in FKF Premier League on February 24, 2018.

The match was played at Camp Toyoyo (Nairobi).