Chemelil Sugar 0–0 Posta Rangers FC: Result & Stats

Chemelil Sugar

FT

0 – 0

Posta Rangers FC

4/10/2019

FKF Premier League · Round 22Chemelil Sports Complex (Chemelil)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Chemelil Sugar33%

×Draw30%

Posta Rangers FC37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chemelil SugarExpected goals in this matchPosta Rangers FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.07

Chemelil Sugar

0.99

Posta Rangers FC

1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 149 away

0.84

creates per match

1.03

1.11

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Chemelil Sugar

0.84

Posta Rangers FC

1.03

allows per match

Chemelil Sugar

1.11

Posta Rangers FC

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chemelil Sugar+0.00on par

Posta Rangers FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemelil Sugar ↓

Posta Rangers FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Chemelil Sugar or draw

63%

Chemelil Sugar or Posta Rangers FC

70%

Draw or Posta Rangers FC

67%

Winning margin

Chemelil Sugar wins by 2+

12%

Posta Rangers FC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Chemelil Sugar 1+ goals

63%

Chemelil Sugar 2+ goals

26%

Chemelil Sugar 3+ goals

8%

Posta Rangers FC 1+ goals

66%

Posta Rangers FC 2+ goals

29%

Posta Rangers FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Chemelil Sugar (draw refunded)

47%

Posta Rangers FC (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemelil Sugar at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

Posta Rangers FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.14 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemelil Sugar attack 0.84 + Posta Rangers FC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.99

Posta Rangers FC attack 1.03 + Chemelil Sugar defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Chemelil Sugar scores more

33%

level

30%

Posta Rangers FC scores more

37%

Posta Rangers FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Posta Rangers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff