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Posta Rangers FC vs AFC Leopards — FKF Premier League 2018

Posta Rangers FC
Posta Rangers FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
AFC Leopards
AFC Leopards
4/14/2024FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 24Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

Posta Rangers FC31%
×Draw29%
AFC Leopards39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Posta Rangers FC
0.99
AFC Leopards
1.15

AFC Leopards creates 16% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 146 away

creates per match

Posta Rangers FC
0.96
AFC Leopards
1.17

allows per match

Posta Rangers FC
1.14
AFC Leopards
1.03

finishing

Posta Rangers FC+0.00on par
AFC Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Posta Rangers FC ↓

AFC Leopards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Posta Rangers FC or draw
61%
Posta Rangers FC or AFC Leopards
71%
Draw or AFC Leopards
69%

Winning margin

Posta Rangers FC wins by 2+
12%
AFC Leopards wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Posta Rangers FC 1+ goals
63%
Posta Rangers FC 2+ goals
26%
Posta Rangers FC 3+ goals
8%
AFC Leopards 1+ goals
68%
AFC Leopards 2+ goals
32%
AFC Leopards 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Posta Rangers FC (draw refunded)
44%
AFC Leopards (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Posta Rangers FC at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.14 · 147 matches

AFC Leopards away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.03 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Posta Rangers FC attack 0.96 + AFC Leopards defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.99

AFC Leopards attack 1.17 + Posta Rangers FC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Posta Rangers FC scores more
31%
level
29%
AFC Leopards scores more
39%

AFC Leopards at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AFC Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Posta Rangers FC 0–1 AFC Leopards

AFC Leopards beat Posta Rangers FC 1-0 in FKF Premier League on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium in Machakos.