Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Post vs Donau — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Post
Post
FT
0 – 1
Donau
Donau
11/19/2022Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 14Sportplatz Post

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Post28%
×Draw23%
Donau50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Post
1.32
Donau
1.84

Donau creates 39% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 58 away

creates per match

Post
1.20
Donau
1.67

allows per match

Post
2.02
Donau
1.45

finishing

Post+0.00on par
Donau+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Post ↓

Donau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Post or draw
50%
Post or Donau
77%
Draw or Donau
72%

Winning margin

Post wins by 2+
12%
Donau wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Post 1+ goals
73%
Post 2+ goals
38%
Post 3+ goals
15%
Donau 1+ goals
84%
Donau 2+ goals
55%
Donau 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Post (draw refunded)
36%
Donau (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Post at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.02 · 45 matches

Donau away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.45 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Post attack 1.20 + Donau defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.32

Donau attack 1.67 + Post defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Post scores more
28%
level
23%
Donau scores more
50%

Donau at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Donau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Post 0 – 1 Donau

Donau beat Post 1-0 in Landesliga - Wien on November 19, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Post in Wien.