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Post vs ASV 13 — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Post
Post
FT
1 – 3
ASV 13
ASV 13
11/12/2022Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 13Sportplatz Post

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Post48%
×Draw21%
ASV 1331%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Post
2.09
ASV 13
1.64

Post creates 27% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 59 away

creates per match

Post
1.20
ASV 13
1.25

allows per match

Post
2.02
ASV 13
2.98

finishing

Post+0.00on par
ASV 13+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Post ↓

ASV 13 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Post or draw
69%
Post or ASV 13
79%
Draw or ASV 13
52%

Winning margin

Post wins by 2+
28%
ASV 13 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Post 1+ goals
88%
Post 2+ goals
62%
Post 3+ goals
34%
ASV 13 1+ goals
81%
ASV 13 2+ goals
49%
ASV 13 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Post (draw refunded)
61%
ASV 13 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Post at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.02 · 45 matches

ASV 13 away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Post attack 1.20 + ASV 13 defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 2.09

ASV 13 attack 1.25 + Post defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Post scores more
48%
level
21%
ASV 13 scores more
31%

Post at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Post will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Post vs ASV 13

ASV 13 beat Post 3-1 in Landesliga - Wien on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Post in Wien.