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Porz vs VfL Vichttal — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Porz
Porz
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
VfL Vichttal
VfL Vichttal
9/22/2024Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 5Kunstrasenplatz Brucknerstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Porz33%
×Draw22%
VfL Vichttal46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Porz
1.68
VfL Vichttal
2.00

VfL Vichttal creates 19% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 79 away

creates per match

Porz
1.57
VfL Vichttal
1.92

allows per match

Porz
2.09
VfL Vichttal
1.78

finishing

Porz+0.00on par
VfL Vichttal+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Porz ↓

VfL Vichttal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Porz or draw
54%
Porz or VfL Vichttal
78%
Draw or VfL Vichttal
67%

Winning margin

Porz wins by 2+
16%
VfL Vichttal wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Porz 1+ goals
81%
Porz 2+ goals
50%
Porz 3+ goals
24%
VfL Vichttal 1+ goals
86%
VfL Vichttal 2+ goals
59%
VfL Vichttal 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Porz (draw refunded)
42%
VfL Vichttal (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Porz at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.09 · 44 matches

VfL Vichttal away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.78 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Porz attack 1.57 + VfL Vichttal defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.68

VfL Vichttal attack 1.92 + Porz defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Porz scores more
33%
level
22%
VfL Vichttal scores more
46%

VfL Vichttal at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "VfL Vichttal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Porz vs VfL Vichttal

Porz beat VfL Vichttal 2-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Brucknerstraße in Köln.