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Porz vs Union Schafhausen — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Porz
Porz
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Union Schafhausen
Union Schafhausen
2/18/2024Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 18Kunstrasenplatz Brucknerstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Porz51%
×Draw21%
Union Schafhausen28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Porz
2.10
Union Schafhausen
1.53

Porz creates 37% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 29 away

creates per match

Porz
1.57
Union Schafhausen
0.97

allows per match

Porz
2.09
Union Schafhausen
2.62

finishing

Porz+0.00on par
Union Schafhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Porz ↓

Union Schafhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Porz or draw
72%
Porz or Union Schafhausen
79%
Draw or Union Schafhausen
49%

Winning margin

Porz wins by 2+
30%
Union Schafhausen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Porz 1+ goals
88%
Porz 2+ goals
62%
Porz 3+ goals
35%
Union Schafhausen 1+ goals
78%
Union Schafhausen 2+ goals
45%
Union Schafhausen 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Porz (draw refunded)
64%
Union Schafhausen (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Porz at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.09 · 44 matches

Union Schafhausen away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Porz attack 1.57 + Union Schafhausen defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.10

Union Schafhausen attack 0.97 + Porz defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Porz scores more
51%
level
21%
Union Schafhausen scores more
28%

Porz at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Porz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Porz 2–0 Union Schafhausen

Porz beat Union Schafhausen 2-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Brucknerstraße in Köln.