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Porz vs Hennef 05 — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Porz
Porz
FT
1 – 2
Hennef 05
Hennef 05
3/17/2024Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 22Kunstrasenplatz Brucknerstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Porz33%
×Draw21%
Hennef 0546%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Porz
1.72
Hennef 05
2.04

Hennef 05 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 81 away

creates per match

Porz
1.57
Hennef 05
1.98

allows per match

Porz
2.09
Hennef 05
1.86

finishing

Porz+0.00on par
Hennef 05+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Porz ↓

Hennef 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Porz or draw
54%
Porz or Hennef 05
79%
Draw or Hennef 05
67%

Winning margin

Porz wins by 2+
16%
Hennef 05 wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Porz 1+ goals
82%
Porz 2+ goals
51%
Porz 3+ goals
25%
Hennef 05 1+ goals
87%
Hennef 05 2+ goals
60%
Hennef 05 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Porz (draw refunded)
42%
Hennef 05 (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Porz at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.09 · 44 matches

Hennef 05 away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.86 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Porz attack 1.57 + Hennef 05 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.72

Hennef 05 attack 1.98 + Porz defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Porz scores more
33%
level
21%
Hennef 05 scores more
46%

Hennef 05 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hennef 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Porz 1–2 Hennef 05

Hennef 05 beat Porz 2-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Brucknerstraße in Köln.