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Porz vs Frechen — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Porz
Porz
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Frechen
Frechen
4/13/2025Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 21Kunstrasenplatz Brucknerstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Porz32%
×Draw22%
Frechen46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Porz
1.53
Frechen
1.88

Frechen creates 23% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 81 away

creates per match

Porz
1.57
Frechen
1.68

allows per match

Porz
2.09
Frechen
1.49

finishing

Porz+0.00on par
Frechen+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Porz ↓

Frechen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Porz or draw
54%
Porz or Frechen
78%
Draw or Frechen
68%

Winning margin

Porz wins by 2+
15%
Frechen wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Porz 1+ goals
78%
Porz 2+ goals
45%
Porz 3+ goals
20%
Frechen 1+ goals
85%
Frechen 2+ goals
56%
Frechen 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Porz (draw refunded)
41%
Frechen (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Porz at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.09 · 44 matches

Frechen away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.49 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Porz attack 1.57 + Frechen defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.53

Frechen attack 1.68 + Porz defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Porz scores more
32%
level
22%
Frechen scores more
46%

Frechen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Frechen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Porz 1 – 0 Frechen

Porz beat Frechen 1-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Brucknerstraße in Köln.