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Porz vs Bonner SC — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Porz
Porz
FT
1 – 3
Bonner SC
Bonner SC
9/17/2023Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 6Kunstrasenplatz Brucknerstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Porz23%
×Draw20%
Bonner SC57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Porz
1.33
Bonner SC
2.19

Bonner SC creates 65% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 44 away

creates per match

Porz
1.57
Bonner SC
2.30

allows per match

Porz
2.09
Bonner SC
1.09

finishing

Porz+0.00on par
Bonner SC+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Porz ↓

Bonner SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Porz or draw
43%
Porz or Bonner SC
80%
Draw or Bonner SC
77%

Winning margin

Porz wins by 2+
9%
Bonner SC wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Porz 1+ goals
74%
Porz 2+ goals
38%
Porz 3+ goals
15%
Bonner SC 1+ goals
89%
Bonner SC 2+ goals
64%
Bonner SC 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Porz (draw refunded)
29%
Bonner SC (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Porz at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.09 · 44 matches

Bonner SC away — creates 2.30, concedes 1.09 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Porz attack 1.57 + Bonner SC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bonner SC attack 2.30 + Porz defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Porz scores more
23%
level
20%
Bonner SC scores more
57%

Bonner SC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bonner SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Porz 1 – 3 Bonner SC

Bonner SC beat Porz 3-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Brucknerstraße in Köln.