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Portuguesa W vs Santos W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Portuguesa W
Portuguesa W
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Santos W
Santos W
5/31/2018Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · GROUP B - Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Portuguesa W19%
×Draw19%
Santos W62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portuguesa W
1.17
Santos W
2.28

Santos W creates 95% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 60 away

creates per match

Portuguesa W
0.86
Santos W
1.85

allows per match

Portuguesa W
2.71
Santos W
1.47

finishing

Portuguesa W+0.00on par
Santos W+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portuguesa W ↓

Santos W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Portuguesa W or draw
38%
Portuguesa W or Santos W
81%
Draw or Santos W
81%

Winning margin

Portuguesa W wins by 2+
7%
Santos W wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Portuguesa W 1+ goals
69%
Portuguesa W 2+ goals
33%
Portuguesa W 3+ goals
11%
Santos W 1+ goals
90%
Santos W 2+ goals
66%
Santos W 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Portuguesa W (draw refunded)
23%
Santos W (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portuguesa W at home — creates 0.86, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

Santos W away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.47 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portuguesa W attack 0.86 + Santos W defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.17

Santos W attack 1.85 + Portuguesa W defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Portuguesa W scores more
19%
level
19%
Santos W scores more
62%

Santos W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Santos W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Portuguesa W 1–3 Santos W

Santos W beat Portuguesa W 3-1 in Brasileiro Women on May 31, 2018.