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Portuguesa W vs Foz Cataratas W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Portuguesa W
Portuguesa W
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Foz Cataratas W
Foz Cataratas W
8/15/2018Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · GROUP B - Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Portuguesa W22%
×Draw23%
Foz Cataratas W55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portuguesa W
1.07
Foz Cataratas W
1.85

Foz Cataratas W creates 73% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Portuguesa W
0.86
Foz Cataratas W
1.00

allows per match

Portuguesa W
2.71
Foz Cataratas W
1.29

finishing

Portuguesa W+0.00on par
Foz Cataratas W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portuguesa W ↓

Foz Cataratas W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Portuguesa W or draw
45%
Portuguesa W or Foz Cataratas W
77%
Draw or Foz Cataratas W
78%

Winning margin

Portuguesa W wins by 2+
8%
Foz Cataratas W wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Portuguesa W 1+ goals
66%
Portuguesa W 2+ goals
29%
Portuguesa W 3+ goals
9%
Foz Cataratas W 1+ goals
84%
Foz Cataratas W 2+ goals
55%
Foz Cataratas W 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Portuguesa W (draw refunded)
28%
Foz Cataratas W (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portuguesa W at home — creates 0.86, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

Foz Cataratas W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portuguesa W attack 0.86 + Foz Cataratas W defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.07

Foz Cataratas W attack 1.00 + Portuguesa W defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Portuguesa W scores more
22%
level
23%
Foz Cataratas W scores more
55%

Foz Cataratas W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Foz Cataratas W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Portuguesa W 2–3 Foz Cataratas W

Foz Cataratas W beat Portuguesa W 3-2 in Brasileiro Women on August 15, 2018.