Portuguesa U20 2–0 Flamengo SP U20: Result & Stats

Portuguesa U20

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Flamengo SP U20

Kaua Victor 60'

Maicon 16'

6/7/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Dr. Oswaldo Teixeira Duarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Portuguesa U2070%

×Draw17%

Flamengo SP U2013%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portuguesa U20Expected goals in this matchFlamengo SP U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.47

0.97

Portuguesa U20

2.47

Flamengo SP U20

0.97

Portuguesa U20 creates 155% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

2.06

creates per match

0.88

1.06

allows per match

2.88

creates per match

Portuguesa U20

2.06

Flamengo SP U20

0.88

allows per match

Portuguesa U20

1.06

Flamengo SP U20

2.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portuguesa U20+0.00on par

Flamengo SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portuguesa U20 ↓

Flamengo SP U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Portuguesa U20 or draw

87%

Portuguesa U20 or Flamengo SP U20

83%

Draw or Flamengo SP U20

30%

Winning margin

Portuguesa U20 wins by 2+

47%

Flamengo SP U20 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Portuguesa U20 1+ goals

91%

Portuguesa U20 2+ goals

70%

Portuguesa U20 3+ goals

44%

Flamengo SP U20 1+ goals

62%

Flamengo SP U20 2+ goals

25%

Flamengo SP U20 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Portuguesa U20 (draw refunded)

84%

Flamengo SP U20 (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portuguesa U20 at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Flamengo SP U20 away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portuguesa U20 attack 2.06 + Flamengo SP U20 defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.47

Flamengo SP U20 attack 0.88 + Portuguesa U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Portuguesa U20 scores more

70%

level

17%

Flamengo SP U20 scores more

13%

Portuguesa U20 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Portuguesa U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Maicon

60'

Kaua Victor

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff