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Portuguesa U20 vs Ferroviária U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Portuguesa U20
Portuguesa U20
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ferroviária U20
Ferroviária U20
6/28/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Portuguesa U2042%
×Draw24%
Ferroviária U2033%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portuguesa U20
1.58
Ferroviária U20
1.38

Portuguesa U20 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 23 away

creates per match

Portuguesa U20
2.06
Ferroviária U20
1.70

allows per match

Portuguesa U20
1.06
Ferroviária U20
1.09

finishing

Portuguesa U20+0.00on par
Ferroviária U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 57Under: 4357%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portuguesa U20 ↓

Ferroviária U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Portuguesa U20 or draw
67%
Portuguesa U20 or Ferroviária U20
76%
Draw or Ferroviária U20
58%

Winning margin

Portuguesa U20 wins by 2+
21%
Ferroviária U20 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Portuguesa U20 1+ goals
79%
Portuguesa U20 2+ goals
47%
Portuguesa U20 3+ goals
21%
Ferroviária U20 1+ goals
75%
Ferroviária U20 2+ goals
40%
Ferroviária U20 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Portuguesa U20 (draw refunded)
56%
Ferroviária U20 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portuguesa U20 at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Ferroviária U20 away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portuguesa U20 attack 2.06 + Ferroviária U20 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.58

Ferroviária U20 attack 1.70 + Portuguesa U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Portuguesa U20 scores more
42%
level
24%
Ferroviária U20 scores more
33%

Portuguesa U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Portuguesa U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portuguesa U20 vs Ferroviária U20

Portuguesa U20 and Ferroviária U20 drew 0-0 in Paulista - U20 on June 28, 2026.