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Portuguesa U20 vs Água Santa U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Portuguesa U20
Portuguesa U20
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Água Santa U20
Água Santa U20
Higor Magdalena 89'
Keven 44', 2'
Nicolas Viana 45+2'
7/4/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Dr. Oswaldo Teixeira Duarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Portuguesa U2058%
×Draw21%
Água Santa U2021%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portuguesa U20
2.03
Água Santa U20
1.13

Portuguesa U20 creates 80% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 16 away

creates per match

Portuguesa U20
2.06
Água Santa U20
1.19

allows per match

Portuguesa U20
1.06
Água Santa U20
2.00

finishing

Portuguesa U20+0.00on par
Água Santa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 61Under: 3961%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portuguesa U20 ↓

Água Santa U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Portuguesa U20 or draw
79%
Portuguesa U20 or Água Santa U20
79%
Draw or Água Santa U20
42%

Winning margin

Portuguesa U20 wins by 2+
35%
Água Santa U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Portuguesa U20 1+ goals
87%
Portuguesa U20 2+ goals
60%
Portuguesa U20 3+ goals
33%
Água Santa U20 1+ goals
68%
Água Santa U20 2+ goals
31%
Água Santa U20 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Portuguesa U20 (draw refunded)
74%
Água Santa U20 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portuguesa U20 at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Água Santa U20 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portuguesa U20 attack 2.06 + Água Santa U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.03

Água Santa U20 attack 1.19 + Portuguesa U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Portuguesa U20 scores more
58%
level
21%
Água Santa U20 scores more
21%

Portuguesa U20 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Portuguesa U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
Keven
44'
Keven
45+2'
Nicolas Viana
89'
Higor Magdalena

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Portuguesa U20 3–1 Água Santa U20

Portuguesa U20 beat Água Santa U20 3-1 in Paulista - U20 on July 4, 2025.

Goals: Keven (2', 44'), Nicolas Viana (45+2'), Higor Magdalena (89').

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Oswaldo Teixeira Duarte in São Paulo, São Paulo.