Portuguesa Santista U20 3–2 Portuguesa U20

Portuguesa Santista U20

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Portuguesa U20

G. dos Reis 74'

Henry 64'

L. Gabriel 30'

Huck 90+8'

A. Gabriel 45+1'

7/3/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Portuguesa Santista U2044%

×Draw24%

Portuguesa U2032%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portuguesa Santista U20Expected goals in this matchPortuguesa U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.34

Portuguesa Santista U20

1.63

Portuguesa U20

1.34

Portuguesa Santista U20 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 16 away

1.89

creates per match

1.31

1.37

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Portuguesa Santista U20

1.89

Portuguesa U20

1.31

allows per match

Portuguesa Santista U20

1.37

Portuguesa U20

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portuguesa Santista U20+0.00on par

Portuguesa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portuguesa Santista U20 ↓

Portuguesa U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Portuguesa Santista U20 or draw

68%

Portuguesa Santista U20 or Portuguesa U20

76%

Draw or Portuguesa U20

56%

Winning margin

Portuguesa Santista U20 wins by 2+

23%

Portuguesa U20 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Portuguesa Santista U20 1+ goals

80%

Portuguesa Santista U20 2+ goals

48%

Portuguesa Santista U20 3+ goals

22%

Portuguesa U20 1+ goals

74%

Portuguesa U20 2+ goals

39%

Portuguesa U20 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Portuguesa Santista U20 (draw refunded)

58%

Portuguesa U20 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portuguesa Santista U20 at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Portuguesa U20 away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portuguesa Santista U20 attack 1.89 + Portuguesa U20 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.63

Portuguesa U20 attack 1.31 + Portuguesa Santista U20 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Portuguesa Santista U20 scores more

44%

level

24%

Portuguesa U20 scores more

32%

Portuguesa Santista U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Portuguesa Santista U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

L. Gabriel

45+1'

A. Gabriel

64'

Henry

74'

G. dos Reis

90+8'

Huck

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff