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Portuguesa Santista U20 vs Ponte Preta U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Portuguesa Santista U20
Portuguesa Santista U20
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ponte Preta U20
Ponte Preta U20
Unknown 90', 60'
Unknown 78', 20'
8/2/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 2nd Phase - 5Estádio Úlrico Mursa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Portuguesa Santista U2044%
×Draw24%
Ponte Preta U2032%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portuguesa Santista U20
1.62
Ponte Preta U20
1.36

Portuguesa Santista U20 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

creates per match

Portuguesa Santista U20
1.89
Ponte Preta U20
1.35

allows per match

Portuguesa Santista U20
1.37
Ponte Preta U20
1.35

finishing

Portuguesa Santista U20+0.00on par
Ponte Preta U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 57Under: 4357%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portuguesa Santista U20 ↓

Ponte Preta U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Portuguesa Santista U20 or draw
68%
Portuguesa Santista U20 or Ponte Preta U20
76%
Draw or Ponte Preta U20
56%

Winning margin

Portuguesa Santista U20 wins by 2+
22%
Ponte Preta U20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Portuguesa Santista U20 1+ goals
80%
Portuguesa Santista U20 2+ goals
48%
Portuguesa Santista U20 3+ goals
22%
Ponte Preta U20 1+ goals
74%
Ponte Preta U20 2+ goals
39%
Ponte Preta U20 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Portuguesa Santista U20 (draw refunded)
58%
Ponte Preta U20 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portuguesa Santista U20 at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Ponte Preta U20 away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portuguesa Santista U20 attack 1.89 + Ponte Preta U20 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.62

Ponte Preta U20 attack 1.35 + Portuguesa Santista U20 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Portuguesa Santista U20 scores more
44%
level
24%
Ponte Preta U20 scores more
32%

Portuguesa Santista U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Portuguesa Santista U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
60'
78'
90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portuguesa Santista U20 vs Ponte Preta U20

Portuguesa Santista U20 and Ponte Preta U20 drew 2-2 in Paulista - U20 on August 2, 2024.

Goals: ? (20', 60', 78', 90').

The match was played at Estádio Úlrico Mursa in Santos, São Paulo.