Portuguesa Santista U20 0–1 Bandeirante U20

Portuguesa Santista U20

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bandeirante U20

Unknown 22'

7/25/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 13Estádio Úlrico Mursa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Portuguesa Santista U2054%

×Draw22%

Bandeirante U2023%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portuguesa Santista U20Expected goals in this matchBandeirante U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.19

Portuguesa Santista U20

1.92

Bandeirante U20

1.19

Portuguesa Santista U20 creates 61% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

1.89

creates per match

1.00

1.37

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Portuguesa Santista U20

1.89

Bandeirante U20

1.00

allows per match

Portuguesa Santista U20

1.37

Bandeirante U20

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portuguesa Santista U20+0.00on par

Bandeirante U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portuguesa Santista U20 ↓

Bandeirante U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Portuguesa Santista U20 or draw

77%

Portuguesa Santista U20 or Bandeirante U20

78%

Draw or Bandeirante U20

46%

Winning margin

Portuguesa Santista U20 wins by 2+

31%

Bandeirante U20 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Portuguesa Santista U20 1+ goals

85%

Portuguesa Santista U20 2+ goals

57%

Portuguesa Santista U20 3+ goals

30%

Bandeirante U20 1+ goals

70%

Bandeirante U20 2+ goals

33%

Bandeirante U20 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Portuguesa Santista U20 (draw refunded)

70%

Bandeirante U20 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portuguesa Santista U20 at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Bandeirante U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portuguesa Santista U20 attack 1.89 + Bandeirante U20 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.92

Bandeirante U20 attack 1.00 + Portuguesa Santista U20 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Portuguesa Santista U20 scores more

54%

level

22%

Bandeirante U20 scores more

23%

Portuguesa Santista U20 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Portuguesa Santista U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

62'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff