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Portuguesa RJ vs Bangu — Copa Rio 2023

Portuguesa RJ
Portuguesa RJ
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bangu
Bangu
8/30/2025Copa RioCopa Rio · Quarter finalsEstádio Luso-Brasileiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Portuguesa RJ43%
×Draw30%
Bangu27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portuguesa RJ
1.19
Bangu
0.88

Portuguesa RJ creates 35% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Portuguesa RJ
1.88
Bangu
0.75

allows per match

Portuguesa RJ
1.00
Bangu
0.50

finishing

Portuguesa RJ+0.00on par
Bangu+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portuguesa RJ ↓

Bangu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Portuguesa RJ or draw
73%
Portuguesa RJ or Bangu
70%
Draw or Bangu
57%

Winning margin

Portuguesa RJ wins by 2+
19%
Bangu wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Portuguesa RJ 1+ goals
70%
Portuguesa RJ 2+ goals
33%
Portuguesa RJ 3+ goals
12%
Bangu 1+ goals
59%
Bangu 2+ goals
22%
Bangu 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Portuguesa RJ (draw refunded)
61%
Bangu (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portuguesa RJ at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Bangu away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portuguesa RJ attack 1.88 + Bangu defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.19

Bangu attack 0.75 + Portuguesa RJ defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Portuguesa RJ scores more
43%
level
30%
Bangu scores more
27%

Portuguesa RJ at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Portuguesa RJ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Rio: Portuguesa RJ 0–0 Bangu

Portuguesa RJ and Bangu drew 0-0 in Copa Rio on August 30, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Luso-Brasileiro in Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro.