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Portuguesa Londrinense vs Cambé — League #1138 2026

Portuguesa Londrinense
Portuguesa Londrinense
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Cambé
Cambé
Unknown 33'
Unknown 76', 20', 18'
8/31/2025League #1138League #1138 · Round 1Estádio Municipal Uady Chaiben

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Portuguesa Londrinense40%
×Draw24%
Cambé36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portuguesa Londrinense
1.59
Cambé
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Portuguesa Londrinense
1.43
Cambé
1.00

allows per match

Portuguesa Londrinense
2.00
Cambé
1.75

finishing

Portuguesa Londrinense+0.00on par
Cambé+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portuguesa Londrinense ↓

Cambé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Portuguesa Londrinense or draw
64%
Portuguesa Londrinense or Cambé
76%
Draw or Cambé
60%

Winning margin

Portuguesa Londrinense wins by 2+
20%
Cambé wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Portuguesa Londrinense 1+ goals
80%
Portuguesa Londrinense 2+ goals
47%
Portuguesa Londrinense 3+ goals
21%
Cambé 1+ goals
78%
Cambé 2+ goals
44%
Cambé 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Portuguesa Londrinense (draw refunded)
53%
Cambé (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portuguesa Londrinense at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Cambé away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portuguesa Londrinense attack 1.43 + Cambé defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.59

Cambé attack 1.00 + Portuguesa Londrinense defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Portuguesa Londrinense scores more
40%
level
24%
Cambé scores more
36%

Portuguesa Londrinense at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Portuguesa Londrinense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
20'
33'
76'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portuguesa Londrinense vs Cambé

Cambé beat Portuguesa Londrinense 3-1 in League #1138 on August 31, 2025.

Goals: ? (18', 20', 33', 76').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Uady Chaiben in Londrina, Paraná.