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Portuguesa FC vs Zulia FC — Primera División 2018

Portuguesa FC
Portuguesa FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Zulia FC
Zulia FC
9/26/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 12Estadio General José Antonio Páez (Acarigua-Araure)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Portuguesa FC44%
×Draw27%
Zulia FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portuguesa FC
1.35
Zulia FC
1.05

Portuguesa FC creates 29% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 66 away

creates per match

Portuguesa FC
1.10
Zulia FC
1.06

allows per match

Portuguesa FC
1.04
Zulia FC
1.61

finishing

Portuguesa FC+0.00on par
Zulia FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portuguesa FC ↓

Zulia FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Portuguesa FC or draw
71%
Portuguesa FC or Zulia FC
73%
Draw or Zulia FC
56%

Winning margin

Portuguesa FC wins by 2+
20%
Zulia FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Portuguesa FC 1+ goals
74%
Portuguesa FC 2+ goals
39%
Portuguesa FC 3+ goals
15%
Zulia FC 1+ goals
65%
Zulia FC 2+ goals
28%
Zulia FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Portuguesa FC (draw refunded)
60%
Zulia FC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portuguesa FC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.04 · 139 matches

Zulia FC away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.61 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portuguesa FC attack 1.10 + Zulia FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.35

Zulia FC attack 1.06 + Portuguesa FC defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Portuguesa FC scores more
44%
level
27%
Zulia FC scores more
29%

Portuguesa FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Portuguesa FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Portuguesa FC 2–1 Zulia FC

Portuguesa FC beat Zulia FC 2-1 in Primera División on September 26, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio General José Antonio Páez (Acarigua-Araure).