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Portuguesa FC vs Deportivo Tachira FC — Primera División 2018

Portuguesa FC
Portuguesa FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Tachira FC
Deportivo Tachira FC
9/14/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 10Estadio General José Antonio Páez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Portuguesa FC34%
×Draw30%
Deportivo Tachira FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portuguesa FC
1.05
Deportivo Tachira FC
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 139 home / 147 away

creates per match

Portuguesa FC
1.10
Deportivo Tachira FC
1.12

allows per match

Portuguesa FC
1.04
Deportivo Tachira FC
1.00

finishing

Portuguesa FC+0.00on par
Deportivo Tachira FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portuguesa FC ↓

Deportivo Tachira FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Portuguesa FC or draw
64%
Portuguesa FC or Deportivo Tachira FC
70%
Draw or Deportivo Tachira FC
66%

Winning margin

Portuguesa FC wins by 2+
13%
Deportivo Tachira FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Portuguesa FC 1+ goals
65%
Portuguesa FC 2+ goals
28%
Portuguesa FC 3+ goals
9%
Deportivo Tachira FC 1+ goals
66%
Deportivo Tachira FC 2+ goals
29%
Deportivo Tachira FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Portuguesa FC (draw refunded)
49%
Deportivo Tachira FC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portuguesa FC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.04 · 139 matches

Deportivo Tachira FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.00 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portuguesa FC attack 1.10 + Deportivo Tachira FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.05

Deportivo Tachira FC attack 1.12 + Portuguesa FC defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Portuguesa FC scores more
34%
level
30%
Deportivo Tachira FC scores more
36%

Deportivo Tachira FC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Deportivo Tachira FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Portuguesa FC 2–0 Deportivo Tachira FC

Portuguesa FC beat Deportivo Tachira FC 2-0 in Primera División on September 14, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio General José Antonio Páez in Barinas.