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Portuguesa FC vs Deportivo Anzoategui — Primera División 2018

Portuguesa FC
Portuguesa FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Deportivo Anzoategui
Deportivo Anzoategui
8/11/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 4Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Portuguesa FC48%
×Draw26%
Deportivo Anzoategui25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portuguesa FC
1.46
Deportivo Anzoategui
0.98

Portuguesa FC creates 49% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 26 away

creates per match

Portuguesa FC
1.10
Deportivo Anzoategui
0.92

allows per match

Portuguesa FC
1.04
Deportivo Anzoategui
1.81

finishing

Portuguesa FC+0.00on par
Deportivo Anzoategui+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portuguesa FC ↓

Deportivo Anzoategui →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Portuguesa FC or draw
75%
Portuguesa FC or Deportivo Anzoategui
74%
Draw or Deportivo Anzoategui
52%

Winning margin

Portuguesa FC wins by 2+
24%
Deportivo Anzoategui wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Portuguesa FC 1+ goals
77%
Portuguesa FC 2+ goals
43%
Portuguesa FC 3+ goals
18%
Deportivo Anzoategui 1+ goals
62%
Deportivo Anzoategui 2+ goals
26%
Deportivo Anzoategui 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Portuguesa FC (draw refunded)
66%
Deportivo Anzoategui (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portuguesa FC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.04 · 139 matches

Deportivo Anzoategui away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portuguesa FC attack 1.10 + Deportivo Anzoategui defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.46

Deportivo Anzoategui attack 0.92 + Portuguesa FC defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Portuguesa FC scores more
48%
level
26%
Deportivo Anzoategui scores more
25%

Portuguesa FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Portuguesa FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Portuguesa FC 1–1 Deportivo Anzoategui

Portuguesa FC and Deportivo Anzoategui drew 1-1 in Primera División on August 11, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare).