Portuguesa FC 1–1 CD Hermanos Colmenarez

Portuguesa FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

8/27/2021

Primera División · Round 20Estadio General José Antonio Páez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Portuguesa FC43%

×Draw28%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portuguesa FCExpected goals in this matchCD Hermanos Colmenarez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.01

Portuguesa FC

1.29

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

1.01

Portuguesa FC creates 28% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 64 away

1.10

creates per match

0.98

1.04

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Portuguesa FC

1.10

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

0.98

allows per match

Portuguesa FC

1.04

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portuguesa FC+0.00on par

CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portuguesa FC ↓

CD Hermanos Colmenarez →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Portuguesa FC or draw

71%

Portuguesa FC or CD Hermanos Colmenarez

72%

Draw or CD Hermanos Colmenarez

57%

Winning margin

Portuguesa FC wins by 2+

19%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Portuguesa FC 1+ goals

72%

Portuguesa FC 2+ goals

37%

Portuguesa FC 3+ goals

14%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals

64%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals

27%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Portuguesa FC (draw refunded)

60%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portuguesa FC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.04 · 139 matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.48 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portuguesa FC attack 1.10 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.29

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 0.98 + Portuguesa FC defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Portuguesa FC scores more

43%

level

28%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more

29%

Portuguesa FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Portuguesa FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff