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CD Hermanos Colmenarez vs Portuguesa FC — Primera División 2018

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Portuguesa FC
Portuguesa FC
3/15/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 7Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez44%
×Draw27%
Portuguesa FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.40
Portuguesa FC
1.11

CD Hermanos Colmenarez creates 26% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 137 away

creates per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.44
Portuguesa FC
0.91

allows per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.31
Portuguesa FC
1.36

finishing

CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par
Portuguesa FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Hermanos Colmenarez ↓

Portuguesa FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

CD Hermanos Colmenarez or draw
70%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez or Portuguesa FC
73%
Draw or Portuguesa FC
56%

Winning margin

CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+
21%
Portuguesa FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals
75%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals
41%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals
17%
Portuguesa FC 1+ goals
67%
Portuguesa FC 2+ goals
30%
Portuguesa FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)
59%
Portuguesa FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Hermanos Colmenarez at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

Portuguesa FC away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.36 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 1.44 + Portuguesa FC defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.40

Portuguesa FC attack 0.91 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more
44%
level
27%
Portuguesa FC scores more
30%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "CD Hermanos Colmenarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CD Hermanos Colmenarez vs Portuguesa FC

Portuguesa FC beat CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3-1 in Primera División on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar in Barinas.