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Portuguesa FC vs Angostura FC — Primera División 2018

Portuguesa FC
Portuguesa FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Angostura FC
Angostura FC
5/5/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - Quadrangular - 3Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Portuguesa FC45%
×Draw27%
Angostura FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portuguesa FC
1.42
Angostura FC
1.06

Portuguesa FC creates 34% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 30 away

creates per match

Portuguesa FC
1.10
Angostura FC
1.07

allows per match

Portuguesa FC
1.04
Angostura FC
1.73

finishing

Portuguesa FC+0.00on par
Angostura FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portuguesa FC ↓

Angostura FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Portuguesa FC or draw
72%
Portuguesa FC or Angostura FC
73%
Draw or Angostura FC
55%

Winning margin

Portuguesa FC wins by 2+
22%
Angostura FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Portuguesa FC 1+ goals
76%
Portuguesa FC 2+ goals
41%
Portuguesa FC 3+ goals
17%
Angostura FC 1+ goals
65%
Angostura FC 2+ goals
29%
Angostura FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Portuguesa FC (draw refunded)
62%
Angostura FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portuguesa FC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.04 · 139 matches

Angostura FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portuguesa FC attack 1.10 + Angostura FC defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.42

Angostura FC attack 1.07 + Portuguesa FC defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Portuguesa FC scores more
45%
level
27%
Angostura FC scores more
28%

Portuguesa FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Portuguesa FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Portuguesa FC 2–2 Angostura FC

Portuguesa FC and Angostura FC drew 2-2 in Primera División on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar in Barinas.